markets
Polymarket markets by whale activity
Every market where wallets moved serious size over the last 30 days — $67.08M across 1870 fills of $10,000 or more. Each page shows which side the whales took, the price they paid, and the individual trades, each linked to its transaction on-chain. Open questions are listed first; decided ones are kept as a record.
300 markets · snapshot 2026-10-19 · whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
still open (14)
Questions the market has not answered yet.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
already decided (286)
Kept as a record of how large wallets positioned while these were still open — useful for checking whether the flow was right, not for following it.
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?
Eagles vs. Bears
Giants vs. Rams
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
Colts vs. Chiefs
Rams vs. Broncos
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?
Bills vs. Rams
Steelers vs. Browns
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?
Cowboys vs. Packers
Falcons vs. Packers
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Will France win on 2026-09-28?
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Steelers vs. Patriots
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
Vikings vs. Saints
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
49ers vs. Seahawks
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-14?
LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
Spread: Broncos (-2.5)
Ravens vs. Falcons
Boise State vs. Fresno State
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?
Packers vs. Jets
Raiders vs. Chargers
Raiders vs. Saints
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?
Panthers vs. Falcons
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Titans vs. Giants
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5
Bills vs. Raiders
Florida vs. Missouri
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Minnesota vs. Washington
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19?
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Spread: Rams (-3.5)
Vikings vs. Bears
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Spread: Rams (-6.5)
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
Panthers vs. Browns
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Spread: Virginia Tech (-2.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Cardinals vs. Rams
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-09-26?
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
Patriots vs. Jaguars
Clemson vs. California
Eagles vs. Titans
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
Florida State vs. Alabama
Seahawks vs. Commanders
James Madison vs. San Diego State
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
Will Spain win on 2026-09-29?
Flyers vs. Bruins
Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Bengals vs. Texans
Washington vs. USC
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-11?
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Spread: Rams (-1.5)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina
Spread: Chargers (-6.5)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Raiders vs. Patriots
Chargers vs. Bills
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
Will England win on 2026-10-03?
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Penn State vs. Northwestern
Texans vs. Colts
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
Arizona State vs. Kansas
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Will FK Neftchi Fargona win on 2026-10-12?
Rangers vs. Red Wings
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 41.5
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Browns vs. Jets
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
Will San Marino win on 2026-09-26?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10?
Army vs. Louisiana Tech
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Blues vs. Senators
North Carolina vs. Clemson
Spread: Bills (-7.5)
Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5
UFC Fight Night: Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight, Main Card)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
Will Belgium win on 2026-09-28?
Bengals vs. Steelers
Wisconsin vs. Penn State
Spread: Bears (-4.5)
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Mirra Andreeva
SMU vs. Louisville
Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B
Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
LSU vs. Kentucky
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Sao Paulo Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Nadia Podoroska
Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Jaume Munar vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Spread: Saints (-3.5)
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)
Iowa vs. Michigan
UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Clement Tabur vs Matteo Martineau
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Georgia vs. Alabama
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-13?
Will Wales win on 2026-10-01?
LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner
Ole Miss vs. Florida
Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Spread: Packers (-4.5)
Rice vs. Fresno State
Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Wuhan Tennis Open: Alexandra Eala vs Han Shi
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Florida State vs. Louisville
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
LSU vs. Ole Miss
Broncos vs. Chargers
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?
Singapore Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Maja Chwalinska
Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 5.5
UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims)
Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Taro Daniel
Virginia Tech vs. Maryland
Jingshan: Sijia Wei vs Fiona Ferro
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Army vs. Temple
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston
Saints vs. Ravens
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Spread: Virginia Tech (-1.5)
Spread: Eagles (-6.5)
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries
Senators vs. Maple Leafs
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs
Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?
South Alabama vs. Kentucky
Jets vs. Lions
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
Spain vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5
China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva
Spread: Texas (-5.5)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20?
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
West Virginia vs. Iowa State
Wuhan Tennis Open: Katie Volynets vs Hanyu Guo
Spread: Panthers (-2.5)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 50.5
Columbus: Tyler Zink vs Mitchell Krueger
Navy vs. UAB
Coastal Carolina vs. Delaware
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?
Lisbon: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers
Lions vs. Cardinals
Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03?
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B
LoL: Fuego vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
Adana: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lucrezia Stefanini
LoL: Team Vitality vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Luciano Darderi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner
China Open: Taylah Preston vs Diane Parry
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19?
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-10-11?
Georgia vs. Arkansas
Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Nemiga (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner
Oregon vs. USC
Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs BBL (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs
James Madison vs. San Diego State: O/U 46.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
Adana: Leolia Jeanjean vs Melisa Ercan
China Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Alina Charaeva
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
BYU vs. TCU
UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Türkiye vs. France: O/U 3.5
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier
Will Germany win on 2026-10-01?
Spread: Rams (-2.5)
What counts as a whale. A single fill of $10,000 or more. That bar is the same one used on the whale index, so the two pages can never disagree. A market gets a page once at least two such fills and $50,000 of whale volume have gone through it. Search engines are shown a much smaller set — open questions, plus decided markets that drew over $1M — because a finished market is a record worth keeping, not a result worth ranking.
Positioning is not prediction. We tested whether whale flow forecasts outcomes on hundreds of resolved markets and published the result, including where it fails — read the backtest.