Who's betting on "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"? — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $110K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-12, across 4 trades of $10,000 or more. 51% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 63¢. The market last traded No at 61¢.
- $110K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 4
- fills ≥ $10K
- 36%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 63¢
last traded 61¢ on 2026-10-19
Yes
2 wallets bought at an average of 39¢
last traded 39¢ on 2026-10-19
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. No took 51% of the buy volume and Yes took 49%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 2 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (4)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 0xa974…ef79 | BUY | Yes | $39K | 39¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x7447…a16d | BUY | No | $31K | 62¢ |
| 2026-10-12 | 0x7b02…4991 | BUY | No | $25K | 63¢ |
| 2026-10-10 | 0x6764…49c4 | BUY | Yes | $15K | 38¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.