Who's betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"? — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $201K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-06, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 96¢. The market last traded No at 96¢.
- $201K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 77%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 96¢
last traded 96¢ on 2026-09-07
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $201K into No at around 96¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 77% of the buy flow ($134K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 0xc97b…47e5 | BUY | No | $68K | 96¢ |
| 2026-08-25 | 0xc97b…47e5 | BUY | No | $49K | 96¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0x51df…458f | BUY | No | $41K | 96¢ |
| 2026-08-25 | 0xc97b…47e5 | BUY | No | $17K | 96¢ |
| 2026-08-21 | 0xc682…17bb | SELL | No | $14K | 96¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0xbadf…aef3 | SELL | No | $11K | 96¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-07
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.