Who bet on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $72K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-02, across 3 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 97¢. The market last traded No at 98¢.
- $72K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 3
- fills ≥ $10K
- 57%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 97¢
last traded 98¢ on 2026-10-19
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $72K into No at around 97¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 57% of the buy flow ($14K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 98¢ on 2026-10-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (3)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 0x9d84…1344 | SELL | No | $47K | 96¢ |
| 2026-09-24 | 0x4004…c40b | BUY | No | $14K | 96¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0xed10…d2e5 | BUY | No | $11K | 97¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.