Who's betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"? — Polymarket whale activity
12 whale wallets moved $266K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-27, across 16 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 56¢. The market last traded Yes at 65¢.
- $266K
- whale volume
- 12
- whale wallets
- 16
- fills ≥ $10K
- 25%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
10 wallets bought at an average of 56¢
last traded 65¢ on 2026-09-28
how to read this
The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 12 whale wallets put 100% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 25%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 9 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 0xeee1…3e28 | BUY | Yes | $39K | 51¢ |
| 2026-09-27 | 0x37a6…6684 | SELL | Yes | $27K | 64¢ |
| 2026-09-24 | 0xc658…b784 | BUY | Yes | $25K | 66¢ |
| 2026-09-17 | 0x82d9…eaf8 | BUY | Yes | $20K | 50¢ |
| 2026-09-24 | 0xf91e…4f48 | BUY | Yes | $20K | 68¢ |
| 2026-09-18 | 0xc8ab…6418 | BUY | Yes | $19K | 51¢ |
| 2026-09-22 | 0xeee1…3e28 | BUY | Yes | $14K | 54¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0x7cf9…2798 | SELL | Yes | $13K | 55¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.