Who bet on "China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva" — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $91K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-03, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 65% of their buy volume went to Elena Rybakina, at a volume-weighted entry of 94¢. The market last traded Elena Rybakina at 15¢.
- $91K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 35%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Elena Rybakina
2 wallets bought at an average of 94¢
last traded 15¢ on 2026-10-03
Alina Charaeva
1 wallet bought at an average of 68¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $91K into Elena Rybakina at around 94¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 4 wallets with the largest at 35% ($12K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — Alina Charaeva last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 0x2180…08f0 | SELL | Alina Charaeva | $33K | 71¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x2180…08f0 | SELL | Alina Charaeva | $23K | 81¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x2005…75ea | BUY | Alina Charaeva | $12K | 68¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x55f5…e2a0 | BUY | Elena Rybakina | $12K | 94¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0xb7cb…e02f | BUY | Elena Rybakina | $11K | 94¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.