Who is betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket?

21 wallets traded $10,000 or more on this market between 2026-07-18 and 2026-08-12, for $666K of whale volume across 29 fills. The largest single wallet accounts for 15% of whale buy volume.

Which side are whales on for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

74% of whale buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry price of 76¢. This describes positioning that already happened; it is not a prediction of the outcome.

Who's betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity

21 whale wallets moved $666K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-12, across 29 trades of $10,000 or more. 74% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 76¢. The market last traded No at 83¢.

contested·2026-07-18 → 2026-08-12·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000

$666K
whale volume: 21
whale wallets: 29
fills ≥ $10K: 15%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

No

9 wallets bought at an average of 76¢

$253K

74% of buy flow

last traded 83¢ on 2026-08-17

Yes

4 wallets bought at an average of 26¢

$88K

26% of buy flow

last traded 16¢ on 2026-08-17

how to read this

Whale money is genuinely split here. No took 74% of the buy volume and Yes took 26%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 7 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

biggest whale fills (8)

date	wallet	side	outcome	size	price
2026-07-20	0x44c1…ebc1	SELL	No	$61K	73¢
2026-08-02	0xf559…f462	SELL	No	$54K	79¢
2026-08-12	0x7f9e…3a0e	BUY	No	$52K	82¢
2026-08-02	0x6bab…1292	BUY	No	$41K	78¢
2026-07-24	0xf559…f462	BUY	No	$40K	72¢
2026-07-20	0x3c59…1766	BUY	No	$40K	71¢
2026-08-02	0x77fb…266c	SELL	No	$32K	80¢
2026-07-27	0xad96…d498	SELL	No	$24K	78¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?$719K · one-wallet conviction Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$592K · contested Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$438K · contested

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17

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