Who's betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $207K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-20, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 50% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 26¢. The market last traded Yes at 26¢.
- $207K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 32%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
3 wallets bought at an average of 26¢
last traded 26¢ on 2026-07-21
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 71¢
last traded 74¢ on 2026-07-21
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. Yes took 50% of the buy volume and No took 50%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 0x44c1…ebc1 | SELL | No | $61K | 73¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0x3c59…1766 | BUY | No | $40K | 71¢ |
| 2026-07-16 | 0xaf28…7f92 | BUY | Yes | $32K | 24¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0xd104…acef | SELL | No | $22K | 69¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0xad96…d498 | BUY | No | $22K | 71¢ |
| 2026-07-18 | 0x35bb…009b | BUY | Yes | $20K | 29¢ |
| 2026-07-16 | 0xc13a…6471 | BUY | Yes | $10K | 24¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.