Who's betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity
17 whale wallets moved $662K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-13, across 28 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 85¢. The market last traded No at 84¢.
- $662K
- whale volume
- 17
- whale wallets
- 28
- fills ≥ $10K
- 21%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
10 wallets bought at an average of 85¢
last traded 84¢ on 2026-10-19
Yes
0 wallets bought nothing here (whale flow was sells only)
last traded 15¢ on 2026-10-19
how to read this
The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 17 whale wallets put 100% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 21%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 0xb8a7…7674 | SELL | No | $69K | 85¢ |
| 2026-09-24 | 0x2974…9c23 | SELL | No | $61K | 85¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0x3c91…9af7 | SELL | No | $50K | 85¢ |
| 2026-09-23 | 0xb8a7…7674 | BUY | No | $49K | 86¢ |
| 2026-09-28 | 0x7c3d…5c6b | BUY | No | $43K | 85¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x700a…a239 | SELL | No | $31K | 83¢ |
| 2026-09-19 | 0x5188…c804 | BUY | No | $31K | 85¢ |
| 2026-10-11 | 0x7f9e…3a0e | SELL | No | $25K | 83¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.