Who bet on "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" — Polymarket whale activity
18 whale wallets moved $554K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-21, across 23 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 93¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.
- $554K
- whale volume
- 18
- whale wallets
- 23
- fills ≥ $10K
- 40%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
12 wallets bought at an average of 93¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-21
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 18 wallets put $554K into Yes at around 93¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 18 wallets with the largest at 40% ($151K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-21 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | BUY | Yes | $101K | 99¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0xf6b4…a116 | SELL | Yes | $53K | 98¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0x9e3e…f882 | SELL | Yes | $45K | 98¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0x9e00…ea54 | BUY | Yes | $42K | 81¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0x3ce2…a417 | SELL | Yes | $34K | 88¢ |
| 2026-09-19 | 0x9151…f8d9 | BUY | Yes | $25K | 82¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | BUY | Yes | $24K | 98¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0xb1fe…2b70 | BUY | Yes | $23K | 93¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.