Who bet on "US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $96K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-13, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 95¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.1¢.
- $96K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 71%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
3 wallets bought at an average of 95¢
last traded 99.1¢ on 2026-10-15
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $96K into Yes at around 95¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 71% of the buy flow ($49K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.1¢ on 2026-10-15 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 0xe25b…0f1b | BUY | Yes | $49K | 96¢ |
| 2026-10-13 | 0x996a…e3cc | SELL | Yes | $15K | 98¢ |
| 2026-10-11 | 0x35bb…009b | SELL | Yes | $11K | 91¢ |
| 2026-10-12 | 0x88c4…129a | BUY | Yes | $10K | 95¢ |
| 2026-10-12 | 0x7f9e…3a0e | BUY | Yes | $10K | 92¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.