Who bet on "Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?" — Polymarket whale activity
6 whale wallets moved $260K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-03, across 10 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 96¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.
- $260K
- whale volume
- 6
- whale wallets
- 10
- fills ≥ $10K
- 23%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
6 wallets bought at an average of 96¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 6 wallets put $260K into Yes at around 96¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 6 wallets with the largest at 23% ($60K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 0x700a…a239 | BUY | Yes | $50K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x2cc8…262b | BUY | Yes | $47K | 93¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x996a…e3cc | BUY | Yes | $27K | 99.1¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0xdb42…0ad9 | BUY | Yes | $26K | 98¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0xdb42…0ad9 | BUY | Yes | $26K | 99¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0xe8d7…1252 | BUY | Yes | $24K | 92¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x0e62…17c2 | BUY | Yes | $20K | 93¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x0e62…17c2 | BUY | Yes | $20K | 93¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.