Who bet on "Bills vs. Raiders" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $324K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-18, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Bills, at a volume-weighted entry of 90¢. The market last traded Bills at 99.9¢.
- $324K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 41%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Bills
5 wallets bought at an average of 90¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-10-18
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $324K into Bills at around 90¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 5 wallets with the largest at 41% ($131K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — Bills last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-10-18 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 0x88b2…e1d1 | BUY | Bills | $131K | 99¢ |
| 2026-10-18 | 0xf031…c80c | BUY | Bills | $102K | 86¢ |
| 2026-10-18 | 0xe015…6ffd | BUY | Bills | $58K | 86¢ |
| 2026-10-18 | 0xc5d8…a00b | BUY | Bills | $12K | 83¢ |
| 2026-10-18 | 0xf68a…5b1b | BUY | Bills | $11K | 71¢ |
| 2026-10-18 | 0xe015…6ffd | BUY | Bills | $10K | 69¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.