Who's betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?"? — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $129K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-26, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 87% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 89¢. The market last traded Yes at 94¢.
- $129K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 80%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
2 wallets bought at an average of 89¢
last traded 94¢ on 2026-09-28
No
1 wallet bought at an average of 14¢
last traded 6¢ on 2026-09-28
how to read this
One wallet drives this market: 0x0869…14f1 accounts for 80% of all whale buy volume ($102K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 5 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 0x0869…14f1 | BUY | Yes | $70K | 90¢ |
| 2026-09-26 | 0x0869…14f1 | BUY | Yes | $18K | 89¢ |
| 2026-09-24 | 0xc851…cd2a | BUY | No | $16K | 14¢ |
| 2026-09-26 | 0x0869…14f1 | BUY | Yes | $15K | 90¢ |
| 2026-09-21 | 0x9531…9099 | BUY | Yes | $10K | 87¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.