Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $403K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-02, across 13 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.5¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $403K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 13
- fills ≥ $10K
- 48%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
6 wallets bought at an average of 99.5¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 7 wallets put $403K into No at around 99.5¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 7 wallets with the largest at 48% ($157K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-10-03 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $99K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-09-28 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $46K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-09-25 | 0x611f…ec74 | BUY | No | $46K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-09-25 | 0x254e…e722 | BUY | No | $37K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-09-18 | 0xc9dc…9026 | BUY | No | $30K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x611f…ec74 | SELL | No | $26K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0xc9dc…9026 | SELL | No | $20K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-09-29 | 0xc9dc…9026 | SELL | No | $20K | 99.9¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-12 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.