Who's betting on "Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $317K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-04, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 88% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 90¢. The market last traded No at 91¢.
- $317K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 45%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
5 wallets bought at an average of 90¢
last traded 91¢ on 2026-10-05
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 7¢
last traded 10¢ on 2026-10-04
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 7 wallets put $317K into No at around 90¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 7 wallets with the largest at 45% ($135K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 0xdf17…97d1 | BUY | No | $135K | 90¢ |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x8a4c…532b | BUY | No | $54K | 90¢ |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x77fb…266c | BUY | No | $45K | 90¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x6575…b198 | BUY | Yes | $35K | 7¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0xc078…1a70 | SELL | No | $19K | 92¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x6d9f…9790 | BUY | No | $18K | 88¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0x7c3d…5c6b | BUY | No | $12K | 94¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-05
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.