Who's betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"? — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $219K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-03, across 11 trades of $10,000 or more. 87% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 43¢. The market last traded Yes at 19¢.
- $219K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 11
- fills ≥ $10K
- 81%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
2 wallets bought at an average of 43¢
last traded 19¢ on 2026-10-05
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 61¢
last traded 82¢ on 2026-10-05
how to read this
One wallet drives this market: 0x7c75…4d1d accounts for 81% of all whale buy volume ($147K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 24 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | Yes | $44K | 44¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | Yes | $43K | 43¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | Yes | $28K | 43¢ |
| 2026-09-15 | 0xf81c…ccea | SELL | Yes | $17K | 44¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | Yes | $16K | 41¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | Yes | $16K | 45¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0x58b3…653c | BUY | No | $13K | 63¢ |
| 2026-09-26 | 0x2e7b…bd8c | BUY | Yes | $11K | 43¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-05
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.