Who's betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $163K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-11, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 94¢. The market last traded No at 95¢.
- $163K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 56%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
3 wallets bought at an average of 94¢
last traded 95¢ on 2026-10-12
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 7 wallets put $163K into No at around 94¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 56% of the buy flow ($37K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 0x05e2…6e12 | BUY | No | $37K | 94¢ |
| 2026-09-12 | 0xb1ca…1705 | SELL | No | $33K | 92¢ |
| 2026-10-11 | 0x9c26…74bc | SELL | No | $29K | 95¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0x3eae…e2ed | BUY | No | $19K | 94¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xa7cc…644e | SELL | No | $18K | 92¢ |
| 2026-09-16 | 0xded8…ca0f | SELL | No | $17K | 91¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x244b…0578 | BUY | No | $10K | 94¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-12
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.