Who's betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?"? — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $299K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-26, across 3 trades of $10,000 or more. 70% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 93¢. The market last traded No at 94¢.
- $299K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 3
- fills ≥ $10K
- 70%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
1 wallet bought at an average of 93¢
last traded 94¢ on 2026-08-30
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 7¢
last traded 6¢ on 2026-08-31
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $299K into No at around 93¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 70% of the buy flow ($31K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
biggest whale fills (3)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 0x9648…6825 | SELL | No | $254K | 93¢ |
| 2026-08-26 | 0xdf70…5e92 | BUY | No | $31K | 93¢ |
| 2026-08-07 | 0x485a…21cb | BUY | Yes | $13K | 7¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-31
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.