Who bet on "Commanders vs. Cowboys" — Polymarket whale activity

6 whale wallets moved $273K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-20, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 94% of their buy volume went to Cowboys, at a volume-weighted entry of 72¢. The market last traded Cowboys at 99.9¢.

whale consensus·2026-09-20 → 2026-09-20·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$273K
whale volume
6
whale wallets
6
fills ≥ $10K
43%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Cowboys

5 wallets bought at an average of 72¢

$256K
94% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-20

Commanders

1 wallet bought at an average of 20¢

$17K
6% of buy flow

last traded 4¢ on 2026-09-20

how to read this

The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 6 whale wallets put 94% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 43%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 28 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — Cowboys last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-20 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (6)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-09-200xb9c7…aadeBUYCowboys$118K66¢
2026-09-200xfea3…d227BUYCowboys$58K66¢
2026-09-200xf28e…cab2BUYCowboys$57K85¢
2026-09-200xfe78…0319BUYCommanders$17K20¢
2026-09-200xf68a…5b1bBUYCowboys$12K82¢
2026-09-200xae7f…6f49BUYCowboys$10K84¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing

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