Who's betting on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"? — Polymarket whale activity
11 whale wallets moved $200K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-05, across 12 trades of $10,000 or more. 81% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 78¢. The market last traded Yes at 82¢.
- $200K
- whale volume
- 11
- whale wallets
- 12
- fills ≥ $10K
- 45%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
5 wallets bought at an average of 78¢
last traded 82¢ on 2026-10-05
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 42¢
last traded 18¢ on 2026-10-05
how to read this
The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 11 whale wallets put 81% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 45%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 4 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0x212f…7fd2 | BUY | Yes | $56K | 87¢ |
| 2026-09-30 | 0xeb49…693e | BUY | Yes | $17K | 60¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x7c75…4d1d | BUY | No | $17K | 42¢ |
| 2026-10-03 | 0x88c4…129a | BUY | Yes | $16K | 60¢ |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x212f…7fd2 | BUY | Yes | $14K | 85¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x58b3…653c | BUY | No | $13K | 43¢ |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x2b9d…adc0 | SELL | Yes | $13K | 88¢ |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x6dea…3e4e | SELL | Yes | $12K | 82¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-05
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.