Who bet on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?" — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $76K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-10, across 3 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 98¢. The market last traded No at 99.1¢.
- $76K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 3
- fills ≥ $10K
- 39%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
3 wallets bought at an average of 98¢
last traded 99.1¢ on 2026-10-19
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $76K into No at around 98¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 3 wallets with the largest at 39% ($30K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.1¢ on 2026-10-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (3)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 0x836f…906e | BUY | No | $30K | 98¢ |
| 2026-10-02 | 0x8afa…adb6 | BUY | No | $29K | 98¢ |
| 2026-10-10 | 0x69ea…15cd | BUY | No | $16K | 99¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-19 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.