Who bet on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity
8 whale wallets moved $795K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-16, across 8 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.2¢. The market last traded No at 99.4¢.
- $795K
- whale volume
- 8
- whale wallets
- 8
- fills ≥ $10K
- 33%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
8 wallets bought at an average of 99.2¢
last traded 99.4¢ on 2026-09-16
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 8 wallets put $795K into No at around 99.2¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 8 wallets with the largest at 33% ($261K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.4¢ on 2026-09-16 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 0xed10…d2e5 | BUY | No | $261K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xe639…082a | BUY | No | $198K | 99.1¢ |
| 2026-09-14 | 0xad96…d498 | BUY | No | $100K | 99.1¢ |
| 2026-09-15 | 0xa099…b806 | BUY | No | $100K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-09-16 | 0x8e72…ea48 | BUY | No | $60K | 99.2¢ |
| 2026-09-15 | 0x9351…9e4d | BUY | No | $44K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-09-16 | 0x052f…53fb | BUY | No | $21K | 99.2¢ |
| 2026-09-16 | 0x9473…3b20 | BUY | No | $11K | 99.2¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-12 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.