Who bet on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $307K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-25, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.3¢. The market last traded No at 99.4¢.
- $307K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 32%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 99.3¢
last traded 99.4¢ on 2026-07-27
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $307K into No at around 99.3¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 4 wallets with the largest at 32% ($99K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.4¢ on 2026-07-27 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 0x7523…4c4c | BUY | No | $99K | 99.2¢ |
| 2026-07-24 | 0x06fb…9713 | BUY | No | $60K | 99.4¢ |
| 2026-07-23 | 0xdc4f…4652 | BUY | No | $54K | 99.2¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x9c26…74bc | BUY | No | $45K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x06fb…9713 | BUY | No | $29K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-07-24 | 0x9c26…74bc | BUY | No | $20K | 99.4¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.