Who bet on "Spread: Spain (-1.5)" — Polymarket whale activity

6 whale wallets moved $306K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 13 trades of $10,000 or more. 93% of their buy volume went to Argentina, at a volume-weighted entry of 80¢. The market last traded Argentina at 99.8¢.

one-wallet conviction·2026-07-17 → 2026-07-19·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$306K
whale volume
6
whale wallets
13
fills ≥ $10K
50%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Argentina

4 wallets bought at an average of 80¢

$284K
93% of buy flow

last traded 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19

Spain

2 wallets bought at an average of 21¢

$22K
7% of buy flow

last traded 0.3¢ on 2026-07-19

how to read this

One wallet drives this market: 0x204f…5e14 accounts for 50% of all whale buy volume ($154K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 20 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — Argentina last traded at 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-07-190xe427…8266BUYArgentina$61K80¢
2026-07-190x204f…5e14BUYArgentina$42K81¢
2026-07-190x84cf…2f63BUYArgentina$40K81¢
2026-07-190x163e…dc5bBUYArgentina$30K80¢
2026-07-190x204f…5e14BUYArgentina$23K79¢
2026-07-190x204f…5e14BUYArgentina$19K79¢
2026-07-190x204f…5e14BUYArgentina$19K79¢
2026-07-190x204f…5e14BUYArgentina$18K79¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$312K · near-certain entryAustralia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$306K · whale consensusWimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini$319K · one-wallet conviction

This market is one of 47 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-20

Pull this data yourself

Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.