Who bet on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity
10 whale wallets moved $1.49M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-13, across 13 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.7¢.
- $1.49M
- whale volume
- 10
- whale wallets
- 13
- fills ≥ $10K
- 73%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
7 wallets bought at an average of 99¢
last traded 99.7¢ on 2026-09-14
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 10 wallets put $1.49M into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 73% of the buy flow ($989K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.7¢ on 2026-09-14 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 0x3a8a…7699 | BUY | No | $791K | 99¢ |
| 2026-08-19 | 0x3a8a…7699 | BUY | No | $197K | 99¢ |
| 2026-09-13 | 0xbacd…ab35 | BUY | No | $100K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-08-27 | 0xc3ca…688e | BUY | No | $99K | 99¢ |
| 2026-08-20 | 0xc3ca…688e | BUY | No | $79K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0x77fb…266c | SELL | No | $66K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-09-12 | 0x9351…9e4d | BUY | No | $50K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-09-09 | 0x7a35…2744 | SELL | No | $28K | 99.5¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-14
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.