Who bet on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity

10 whale wallets moved $1.49M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-13, across 13 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.7¢.

near-certain entry·2026-08-192026-09-13·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$1.49M
whale volume
10
whale wallets
13
fills ≥ $10K
73%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

No

7 wallets bought at an average of 99¢

$1.36M
100% of buy flow

last traded 99.7¢ on 2026-09-14

how to read this

This is not a directional bet. 10 wallets put $1.49M into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.

It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 73% of the buy flow ($989K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.

The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.7¢ on 2026-09-14 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-08-200x3a8a…7699BUYNo$791K99¢
2026-08-190x3a8a…7699BUYNo$197K99¢
2026-09-130xbacd…ab35BUYNo$100K99.7¢
2026-08-270xc3ca…688eBUYNo$99K99¢
2026-08-200xc3ca…688eBUYNo$79K99.0¢
2026-08-280x77fb…266cSELLNo$66K99.3¢
2026-09-120x9351…9e4dBUYNo$50K99.7¢
2026-09-090x7a35…2744SELLNo$28K99.5¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-14

Pull this data yourself

Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.