Who bet on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $472K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-29, across 3 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.9¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $472K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 3
- fills ≥ $10K
- 89%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 99.9¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-29
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $472K into No at around 99.9¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 89% of the buy flow ($242K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-29 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (3)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 0xbc97…ff6c | BUY | No | $242K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0x3a8a…7699 | SELL | No | $200K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0x8245…ebed | BUY | No | $30K | 99.9¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.