Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" — Polymarket whale activity
14 whale wallets moved $456K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-13, across 20 trades of $10,000 or more. 93% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 91¢. The market last traded No at 99¢.
- $456K
- whale volume
- 14
- whale wallets
- 20
- fills ≥ $10K
- 24%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
10 wallets bought at an average of 91¢
last traded 99¢ on 2026-08-17
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 16¢
last traded 1¢ on 2026-08-17
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 14 wallets put $456K into No at around 91¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 14 wallets with the largest at 24% ($78K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99¢ on 2026-08-17 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 0x2e0b…8070 | BUY | No | $78K | 98¢ |
| 2026-08-05 | 0x35bb…009b | BUY | No | $50K | 85¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x1cc1…b8df | SELL | Yes | $28K | 11¢ |
| 2026-08-13 | 0x9c26…74bc | BUY | No | $28K | 97¢ |
| 2026-08-06 | 0x56e7…7c0b | SELL | No | $27K | 84¢ |
| 2026-08-07 | 0xc6dd…4b9f | BUY | No | $25K | 87¢ |
| 2026-08-05 | 0x56e7…7c0b | BUY | No | $24K | 86¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x134a…9e42 | BUY | No | $23K | 91¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.