Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" — Polymarket whale activity

15 whale wallets moved $747K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-04, across 20 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.

near-certain entry·2026-08-082026-09-04·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$747K
whale volume
15
whale wallets
20
fills ≥ $10K
47%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

No

7 wallets bought at an average of 99¢

$491K
100% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-07

Yes

0 wallets bought nothing here (whale flow was sells only)

$0
0% of buy flow

last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-08-31

how to read this

This is not a directional bet. 15 wallets put $747K into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.

The flow is spread across 15 wallets with the largest at 47% ($233K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.

The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-07 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-08-290xd1c7…1d2bBUYNo$99K99.8¢
2026-08-290xd1c7…1d2bBUYNo$99K99.8¢
2026-08-130x2e0b…8070BUYNo$78K98¢
2026-08-290x606f…1083SELLNo$52K99.8¢
2026-08-280x4d14…2366BUYNo$50K99.8¢
2026-08-280x9c26…74bcBUYNo$44K99.6¢
2026-09-040xa108…abd3SELLNo$38K99.9¢
2026-08-290xd1c7…1d2bBUYNo$35K99.8¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-07 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing

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