Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" — Polymarket whale activity
15 whale wallets moved $747K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-04, across 20 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $747K
- whale volume
- 15
- whale wallets
- 20
- fills ≥ $10K
- 47%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
7 wallets bought at an average of 99¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-07
Yes
0 wallets bought nothing here (whale flow was sells only)
last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-08-31
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 15 wallets put $747K into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 15 wallets with the largest at 47% ($233K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-07 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $99K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-08-29 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $99K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-08-13 | 0x2e0b…8070 | BUY | No | $78K | 98¢ |
| 2026-08-29 | 0x606f…1083 | SELL | No | $52K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0x4d14…2366 | BUY | No | $50K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0x9c26…74bc | BUY | No | $44K | 99.6¢ |
| 2026-09-04 | 0xa108…abd3 | SELL | No | $38K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-08-29 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $35K | 99.8¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-07 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.