Who bet on "Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" — Polymarket whale activity

4 whale wallets moved $130K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 4 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 97¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.

near-certain entry·2026-07-192026-07-19·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$130K
whale volume
4
whale wallets
4
fills ≥ $10K
76%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Yes

3 wallets bought at an average of 97¢

$105K
100% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20

how to read this

This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $130K into Yes at around 97¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.

It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 76% of the buy flow ($80K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.

The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (4)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-07-190xa2cd…2ba0BUYYes$80K98¢
2026-07-190xb100…6461SELLYes$25K93¢
2026-07-190x2d61…1fa7BUYYes$14K93¢
2026-07-190xedf4…e4d2BUYYes$11K92¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing

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