Who bet on "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" — Polymarket whale activity
21 whale wallets moved $1.04M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 33 trades of $10,000 or more. 80% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 36¢. The market last traded Yes at 0.1¢.
- $1.04M
- whale volume
- 21
- whale wallets
- 33
- fills ≥ $10K
- 45%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
7 wallets bought at an average of 36¢
last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-07-20
No
3 wallets bought at an average of 62¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20
how to read this
The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 21 whale wallets put 80% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 45%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 36 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-20 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 0x18d8…7e2e | BUY | Yes | $122K | 41¢ |
| 2026-07-17 | 0x18d8…7e2e | BUY | Yes | $100K | 42¢ |
| 2026-07-04 | 0xfea3…d227 | SELL | No | $74K | 84¢ |
| 2026-07-17 | 0x2117…5c26 | BUY | No | $68K | 59¢ |
| 2026-07-06 | 0xfea3…d227 | SELL | No | $50K | 83¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0xf742…e039 | SELL | Yes | $42K | 42¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0xaa55…fae5 | BUY | Yes | $41K | 41¢ |
| 2026-06-21 | 0xa7b7…962e | BUY | Yes | $40K | 12¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 47 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-20
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.