Who bet on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?" — Polymarket whale activity
6 whale wallets moved $213K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-14, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.2¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $213K
- whale volume
- 6
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 48%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
5 wallets bought at an average of 99.2¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-08-16
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 6 wallets put $213K into No at around 99.2¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 6 wallets with the largest at 48% ($90K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-08-16 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | BUY | No | $90K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-08-05 | 0x7523…4c4c | BUY | No | $48K | 98¢ |
| 2026-08-07 | 0x9c26…74bc | SELL | No | $26K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x4478…02a4 | BUY | No | $24K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-08-13 | 0x9959…d99b | BUY | No | $14K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-08-04 | 0x2e0b…8070 | BUY | No | $11K | 97¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.