Who bet on "Spread: Argentina (-1.5)" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $90K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-04, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 65% of their buy volume went to Argentina, at a volume-weighted entry of 68¢. The market last traded Argentina at 0.1¢.
- $90K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 41%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Argentina
2 wallets bought at an average of 68¢
last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-07-04
Cabo Verde
2 wallets bought at an average of 33¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-04
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. Argentina took 65% of the buy volume and Cabo Verde took 35%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 68 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — Cabo Verde last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-04 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 0xe9a6…627b | BUY | Argentina | $29K | 68¢ |
| 2026-07-04 | 0x896a…688d | SELL | Cabo Verde | $19K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-03 | 0x032e…2a9e | BUY | Argentina | $17K | 68¢ |
| 2026-07-03 | 0x5257…3e2a | BUY | Cabo Verde | $13K | 32¢ |
| 2026-07-03 | 0x9d5d…e218 | BUY | Cabo Verde | $12K | 34¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.