Who's betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?"? — Polymarket whale activity
15 whale wallets moved $310K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-31, across 19 trades of $10,000 or more. 61% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 61¢. The market last traded No at 49¢.
- $310K
- whale volume
- 15
- whale wallets
- 19
- fills ≥ $10K
- 18%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
9 wallets bought at an average of 61¢
last traded 49¢ on 2026-08-31
Yes
4 wallets bought at an average of 37¢
last traded 52¢ on 2026-08-31
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. No took 61% of the buy volume and Yes took 39%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 12 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 0xbb9f…bef0 | BUY | No | $28K | 72¢ |
| 2026-08-29 | 0xcbc5…e175 | SELL | No | $26K | 56¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0xf559…f462 | BUY | No | $26K | 55¢ |
| 2026-08-25 | 0xeee1…3e28 | BUY | Yes | $23K | 33¢ |
| 2026-08-29 | 0x0c68…9e76 | BUY | No | $21K | 56¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0x3a8a…7699 | BUY | Yes | $18K | 47¢ |
| 2026-08-27 | 0xeb6f…25f0 | SELL | Yes | $17K | 30¢ |
| 2026-08-17 | 0xe907…cff6 | BUY | No | $17K | 76¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-31
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.