Who's betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?"? — Polymarket whale activity
6 whale wallets moved $113K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-20, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 86% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 92¢. The market last traded No at 93¢.
- $113K
- whale volume
- 6
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 33%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 92¢
last traded 93¢ on 2026-07-21
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 16¢
last traded 7¢ on 2026-07-21
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 6 wallets put $113K into No at around 92¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 6 wallets with the largest at 33% ($32K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 0x4b29…716f | BUY | No | $28K | 93¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0x0e5b…a593 | BUY | No | $20K | 94¢ |
| 2026-07-20 | 0x30e4…5102 | SELL | No | $18K | 94¢ |
| 2026-06-28 | 0xa022…77f8 | BUY | Yes | $13K | 16¢ |
| 2026-07-10 | 0xeb6f…25f0 | BUY | No | $12K | 85¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x0e5b…a593 | BUY | No | $12K | 95¢ |
| 2026-07-14 | 0x7b02…4991 | BUY | No | $10K | 91¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.