Who bet on "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $105K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-31, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 94¢. The market last traded No at 98¢.
- $105K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 65%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 94¢
last traded 98¢ on 2026-08-31
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $105K into No at around 94¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 65% of the buy flow ($32K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 98¢ on 2026-08-31 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 0xa456…39f9 | SELL | No | $20K | 97¢ |
| 2026-08-21 | 0x46df…dc32 | SELL | No | $20K | 95¢ |
| 2026-08-12 | 0xeb49…693e | BUY | No | $19K | 93¢ |
| 2026-08-31 | 0x23d8…0288 | BUY | No | $17K | 98¢ |
| 2026-08-12 | 0x70a7…b884 | SELL | No | $16K | 93¢ |
| 2026-08-12 | 0xeb49…693e | BUY | No | $13K | 93¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-31 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.