Who bet on "Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $83K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-06, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 60% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 7¢. The market last traded Yes at 0.2¢.
- $83K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 60%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 7¢
last traded 0.2¢ on 2026-07-06
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 93¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-06
how to read this
One wallet drives this market: 0x5fae…78f1 accounts for 60% of all whale buy volume ($50K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 7 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-06 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 0x5fae…78f1 | BUY | Yes | $27K | 6¢ |
| 2026-07-06 | 0x5fae…78f1 | BUY | Yes | $23K | 7¢ |
| 2026-06-27 | 0x54b5…4b31 | BUY | No | $12K | 91¢ |
| 2026-07-05 | 0x3f6e…18d9 | BUY | No | $11K | 94¢ |
| 2026-07-06 | 0x3f6e…18d9 | BUY | No | $11K | 94¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.