Who bet on "Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?" — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $104K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-05, across 4 trades of $10,000 or more. 74% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 99.0¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.
- $104K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 4
- fills ≥ $10K
- 74%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 99.0¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-05
No
2 wallets bought at an average of 81¢
last traded 2¢ on 2026-07-05
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $104K into Yes at around 99.0¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 74% of the buy flow ($59K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-05 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (4)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | 0xeab3…4d7a | BUY | Yes | $59K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-07-05 | 0x94d7…bef5 | SELL | Yes | $23K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-05 | 0x7d78…29a5 | BUY | No | $11K | 82¢ |
| 2026-07-04 | 0x5afe…af69 | BUY | No | $10K | 80¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.