Who bet on "Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $85K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-15, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $85K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 43%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
3 wallets bought at an average of 99¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-19
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $85K into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 4 wallets with the largest at 43% ($18K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | 0x84cf…2f63 | BUY | No | $18K | 98¢ |
| 2026-07-15 | 0x4b0e…0677 | SELL | No | $18K | 99.7¢ |
| 2026-07-10 | 0x4b0e…0677 | BUY | No | $13K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-07-09 | 0x4b0e…0677 | SELL | No | $13K | 99.5¢ |
| 2026-07-07 | 0x2a3b…51b4 | SELL | No | $12K | 99.6¢ |
| 2026-06-28 | 0xa3f6…c142 | BUY | No | $11K | 99.3¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.