Who is betting on "Will France win on 2026-07-18?" on Polymarket?

19 wallets traded $10,000 or more on this market between 2026-07-18 and 2026-07-18, for $1.15M of whale volume across 24 fills. The largest single wallet accounts for 24% of whale buy volume.

Which side are whales on for "Will France win on 2026-07-18?"?

58% of whale buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry price of 53¢. This describes positioning that already happened; it is not a prediction of the outcome.

Who bet on "Will France win on 2026-07-18?" — Polymarket whale activity

19 whale wallets moved $1.15M through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-18, across 24 trades of $10,000 or more. 58% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 53¢. The market last traded Yes at 0.1¢.

contested·2026-07-18 → 2026-07-18·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000

$1.15M
whale volume: 19
whale wallets: 24
fills ≥ $10K: 24%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Yes

10 wallets bought at an average of 53¢

$627K

58% of buy flow

last traded 0.1¢ on 2026-07-18

No

8 wallets bought at an average of 83¢

$448K

42% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-18

how to read this

Whale money is genuinely split here. Yes took 58% of the buy volume and No took 42%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 53 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-18 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

date	wallet	side	outcome	size	price
2026-07-18	0xe549…2d54	BUY	Yes	$260K	52¢
2026-07-18	0x97e9…6df2	BUY	No	$199K	99.9¢
2026-07-18	0xe9a6…627b	BUY	Yes	$195K	53¢
2026-07-18	0xc3ed…9f79	BUY	No	$92K	45¢
2026-07-18	0xc3ed…9f79	SELL	No	$62K	83¢
2026-07-18	0xd3e7…ea94	BUY	Yes	$51K	57¢
2026-07-18	0x06c0…bc23	BUY	No	$40K	99.5¢
2026-07-18	0x06f2…1269	BUY	No	$26K	64¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.27M · near-certain entry Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.08M · near-certain entry Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$666K · contested

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17

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