Who bet on "Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" — Polymarket whale activity
1 whale wallet moved $57K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-25, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 97¢. The market last traded No at 98¢.
- $57K
- whale volume
- 1
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 100%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
1 wallet bought at an average of 97¢
last traded 98¢ on 2026-07-25
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 1 wallet put $57K into No at around 97¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 100% of the buy flow ($23K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 98¢ on 2026-07-25 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 0x21e2…8893 | BUY | No | $11K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-22 | 0x21e2…8893 | SELL | No | $11K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-21 | 0x21e2…8893 | BUY | No | $11K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-21 | 0x21e2…8893 | SELL | No | $11K | 97¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x21e2…8893 | SELL | No | $11K | 98¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.