Who bet on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?" — Polymarket whale activity
4 whale wallets moved $76K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-29, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 91¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $76K
- whale volume
- 4
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 40%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
3 wallets bought at an average of 91¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-30
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 4 wallets put $76K into No at around 91¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 4 wallets with the largest at 40% ($20K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-30 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 0x9592…a7b8 | BUY | No | $20K | 77¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0xc96e…f1f9 | BUY | No | $18K | 99.8¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0xa65c…7997 | SELL | No | $15K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0x7131…29cc | BUY | No | $12K | 99¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0xa65c…7997 | SELL | No | $10K | 94¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.