Who bet on "US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $141K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-06, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 84% of their buy volume went to Carlos Alcaraz, at a volume-weighted entry of 90¢. The market last traded Carlos Alcaraz at 99.9¢.
- $141K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 53%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Carlos Alcaraz
3 wallets bought at an average of 90¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-09-06
Tommy Paul
2 wallets bought at an average of 20¢
last traded 1.0¢ on 2026-09-06
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $141K into Carlos Alcaraz at around 90¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 53% of the buy flow ($75K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — Carlos Alcaraz last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-09-06 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 0xccd8…f4de | BUY | Carlos Alcaraz | $63K | 94¢ |
| 2026-09-05 | 0xf3b0…23a1 | BUY | Carlos Alcaraz | $20K | 84¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0xd27c…c081 | BUY | Carlos Alcaraz | $14K | 85¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0x4be1…aa70 | BUY | Tommy Paul | $13K | 21¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0xccd8…f4de | BUY | Carlos Alcaraz | $12K | 93¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0xdb85…152f | BUY | Tommy Paul | $10K | 20¢ |
| 2026-09-06 | 0xf3b0…23a1 | BUY | Carlos Alcaraz | $10K | 82¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-07 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.