Who bet on "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?" — Polymarket whale activity
6 whale wallets moved $446K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-30, across 8 trades of $10,000 or more. 86% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 99¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $446K
- whale volume
- 6
- whale wallets
- 8
- fills ≥ $10K
- 49%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 99¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-08-30
Yes
1 wallet bought at an average of 90¢
last traded 0.3¢ on 2026-08-30
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 6 wallets put $446K into No at around 99¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 6 wallets with the largest at 49% ($176K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-08-30 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 0xadc2…d1c9 | BUY | No | $99K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-08-30 | 0xc96e…f1f9 | BUY | No | $95K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-08-30 | 0xc96e…f1f9 | BUY | No | $81K | 98¢ |
| 2026-08-28 | 0xc84f…e0c5 | SELL | Yes | $58K | 87¢ |
| 2026-08-26 | 0xc84f…e0c5 | BUY | Yes | $50K | 90¢ |
| 2026-08-30 | 0x3666…aab6 | BUY | No | $27K | 99.0¢ |
| 2026-08-30 | 0xfaf6…cc47 | SELL | No | $25K | 99¢ |
| 2026-08-30 | 0xda68…6b7b | BUY | No | $11K | 99.9¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-31 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.