Who bet on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $88K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-10-01, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 93¢. The market last traded No at 99.9¢.
- $88K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 33%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
4 wallets bought at an average of 93¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-10-01
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $88K into No at around 93¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 5 wallets with the largest at 33% ($25K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-10-01 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 0xef9b…d5ed | BUY | No | $25K | 89¢ |
| 2026-09-30 | 0x69aa…8847 | BUY | No | $20K | 99.6¢ |
| 2026-10-01 | 0xfaf9…f4c4 | BUY | No | $16K | 99.9¢ |
| 2026-09-22 | 0xe907…cff6 | BUY | No | $14K | 81¢ |
| 2026-09-12 | 0xc851…cd2a | SELL | No | $13K | 80¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-10-12 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.