Who bet on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $127K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-09-20, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to No, at a volume-weighted entry of 95¢. The market last traded No at 99.8¢.
- $127K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 34%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
No
5 wallets bought at an average of 95¢
last traded 99.8¢ on 2026-09-22
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $127K into No at around 95¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 5 wallets with the largest at 34% ($44K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — No last traded at 99.8¢ on 2026-09-22 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 0x88e2…7489 | BUY | No | $39K | 97¢ |
| 2026-09-20 | 0xdf17…97d1 | BUY | No | $24K | 97¢ |
| 2026-09-17 | 0xdf17…97d1 | BUY | No | $19K | 97¢ |
| 2026-09-02 | 0x05f6…25a1 | BUY | No | $17K | 88¢ |
| 2026-09-19 | 0x8afa…adb6 | BUY | No | $16K | 99¢ |
| 2026-09-02 | 0xf0f8…325f | BUY | No | $12K | 87¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-09-28 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.