Who bet on "Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5" — Polymarket whale activity
10 whale wallets moved $473K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 14 trades of $10,000 or more. 62% of their buy volume went to Under, at a volume-weighted entry of 78¢. The market last traded Under at 99.8¢.
- $473K
- whale volume
- 10
- whale wallets
- 14
- fills ≥ $10K
- 15%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Under
6 wallets bought at an average of 78¢
last traded 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19
Over
4 wallets bought at an average of 40¢
last traded 1¢ on 2026-07-19
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. Under took 62% of the buy volume and Over took 38%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 22 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — Under last traded at 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 0xe907…cff6 | SELL | Over | $65K | 41¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x7c1e…bab3 | BUY | Over | $63K | 42¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0xf28e…cab2 | BUY | Under | $57K | 82¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x3dfb…abaf | BUY | Over | $55K | 42¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x79ae…9a4a | BUY | Under | $50K | 57¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x2c33…0563 | BUY | Under | $41K | 82¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x7d9d…3c52 | BUY | Under | $33K | 82¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x84cf…2f63 | BUY | Under | $30K | 90¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 47 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-20
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.