Who bet on "Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5" — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $198K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-19, across 11 trades of $10,000 or more. 88% of their buy volume went to Over, at a volume-weighted entry of 65¢. The market last traded Over at 0.3¢.
- $198K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 11
- fills ≥ $10K
- 55%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Over
5 wallets bought at an average of 65¢
last traded 0.3¢ on 2026-07-19
Under
2 wallets bought at an average of 39¢
last traded 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19
how to read this
One wallet drives this market: 0x204f…5e14 accounts for 55% of all whale buy volume ($108K). That makes this one desk's position rather than a crowd view — the concentration is the story, and it means a single actor's change of mind would move the whole picture.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 64 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — Under last traded at 99.8¢ on 2026-07-19 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (8)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 0x204f…5e14 | BUY | Over | $34K | 69¢ |
| 2026-07-17 | 0x204f…5e14 | BUY | Over | $23K | 70¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x3dfb…abaf | BUY | Over | $21K | 70¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x208c…6b98 | BUY | Over | $20K | 42¢ |
| 2026-07-18 | 0x204f…5e14 | BUY | Over | $17K | 69¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x204f…5e14 | BUY | Over | $17K | 69¢ |
| 2026-07-17 | 0x204f…5e14 | BUY | Over | $16K | 70¢ |
| 2026-07-19 | 0x361b…74fe | BUY | Over | $14K | 69¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 240 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-21 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.