Who bet on "National Bank Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon Nakashima" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $82K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-08, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 59% of their buy volume went to Brandon Nakashima, at a volume-weighted entry of 74¢. The market last traded Brandon Nakashima at 99.9¢.
- $82K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 26%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Brandon Nakashima
3 wallets bought at an average of 74¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-08-09
Arthur Rinderknech
2 wallets bought at an average of 30¢
last traded 8¢ on 2026-08-08
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. Brandon Nakashima took 59% of the buy volume and Arthur Rinderknech took 41%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 26 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
The market has since converged — Brandon Nakashima last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-08-09 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 0x2c33…0563 | BUY | Arthur Rinderknech | $18K | 34¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x8718…5040 | BUY | Brandon Nakashima | $15K | 54¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x5f65…2036 | SELL | Arthur Rinderknech | $15K | 46¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x9bb1…4dbe | BUY | Brandon Nakashima | $14K | 85¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0xf519…906b | BUY | Brandon Nakashima | $11K | 85¢ |
| 2026-08-08 | 0x5f65…2036 | BUY | Arthur Rinderknech | $10K | 24¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.