Who bet on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?" — Polymarket whale activity
5 whale wallets moved $93K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-25, across 6 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 92¢. The market last traded Yes at 99.9¢.
- $93K
- whale volume
- 5
- whale wallets
- 6
- fills ≥ $10K
- 43%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
5 wallets bought at an average of 92¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-27
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 5 wallets put $93K into Yes at around 92¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
The flow is spread across 5 wallets with the largest at 43% ($40K) — several participants independently taking the same yield, which is what an efficient market looks like rather than a signal.
The market has since converged — Yes last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-27 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (6)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | BUY | Yes | $30K | 99.2¢ |
| 2026-07-23 | 0x53e5…6177 | BUY | Yes | $15K | 68¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x088f…c9e7 | BUY | Yes | $14K | 99.3¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x7f9e…3a0e | BUY | Yes | $12K | 98¢ |
| 2026-07-24 | 0x35bb…009b | BUY | Yes | $12K | 82¢ |
| 2026-07-25 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | BUY | Yes | $11K | 99.0¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 276 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-27 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.