Who bet on "France vs. England: Team to Win" — Polymarket whale activity

19 whale wallets moved $557K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-18, across 24 trades of $10,000 or more. 90% of their buy volume went to France, at a volume-weighted entry of 64¢. The market last traded France at 2¢.

whale consensus·2026-07-17 → 2026-07-18·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000
$557K
whale volume
19
whale wallets
24
fills ≥ $10K
23%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

France

11 wallets bought at an average of 64¢

$408K
90% of buy flow

last traded 2¢ on 2026-07-18

England

2 wallets bought at an average of 71¢

$43K
10% of buy flow

last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-18

how to read this

The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 19 whale wallets put 90% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 23%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 62 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

The market has since converged — England last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-18 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.

biggest whale fills (8)

datewalletsideoutcomesizeprice
2026-07-170x2c33…0563BUYFrance$71K65¢
2026-07-180x97b7…a014BUYFrance$60K67¢
2026-07-180xe221…06f6BUYFrance$57K53¢
2026-07-180x84cf…2f63BUYFrance$52K70¢
2026-07-180x8325…19ccBUYEngland$31K61¢
2026-07-170xfb65…5dc6BUYFrance$26K65¢
2026-07-180x3281…abefSELLEngland$24K31¢
2026-07-170x97b7…a014BUYFrance$21K65¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$591K · whale consensusFrance vs. Spain: O/U 2.5$557K · one-wallet convictionWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$535K · whale consensus

This market is one of 47 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-07-20

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