Who is betting on "Fed rate hike in 2026?" on Polymarket?

8 wallets traded $10,000 or more on this market between 2026-07-28 and 2026-08-07, for $184K of whale volume across 8 fills. The largest single wallet accounts for 36% of whale buy volume.

Which side are whales on for "Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

79% of whale buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry price of 57¢. This describes positioning that already happened; it is not a prediction of the outcome.

Who's betting on "Fed rate hike in 2026?"? — Polymarket whale activity

8 whale wallets moved $184K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-08-07, across 8 trades of $10,000 or more. 79% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 57¢. The market last traded Yes at 47¢.

whale consensus·2026-07-28 → 2026-08-07·whale = single fill ≥ $10,000

$184K
whale volume: 8
whale wallets: 8
fills ≥ $10K: 36%
top wallet share

where the whale money went

Yes

3 wallets bought at an average of 57¢

$98K

79% of buy flow

last traded 47¢ on 2026-08-17

No

1 wallet bought at an average of 37¢

$25K

21% of buy flow

last traded 54¢ on 2026-08-17

how to read this

The flow is broad rather than concentrated: 8 whale wallets put 79% of their buy volume on the same side, with the largest single wallet at 36%. Agreement at that width is harder to dismiss as one trader's idea, though it is still agreement about odds, not about the outcome.

Between those entries and the last print the market moved 10 cents against the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.

biggest whale fills (8)

date	wallet	side	outcome	size	price
2026-08-07	0x9d84…1344	BUY	Yes	$45K	50¢
2026-07-30	0x7b02…4991	BUY	Yes	$36K	62¢
2026-07-29	0x7bc1…8db4	BUY	No	$25K	37¢
2026-07-28	0xeb6f…25f0	SELL	Yes	$18K	77¢
2026-07-29	0xa022…77f8	BUY	Yes	$18K	65¢
2026-07-29	0x8c10…d7b3	SELL	No	$15K	36¢
2026-07-28	0x9ffe…8edd	SELL	Yes	$15K	76¢
2026-07-28	0x4478…02a4	SELL	Yes	$12K	77¢

Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.

markets with similar flow

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$184K · near-certain entry Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$180K · near-certain entry France vs. England: Both Teams to Score$180K · whale consensus

This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.

Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.

Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17

Pull this data yourself

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