Who's betting on "Fed rate hike in 2026?"? — Polymarket whale activity
7 whale wallets moved $139K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-30, across 7 trades of $10,000 or more. 68% of their buy volume went to Yes, at a volume-weighted entry of 63¢. The market last traded Yes at 67¢.
- $139K
- whale volume
- 7
- whale wallets
- 7
- fills ≥ $10K
- 46%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Yes
2 wallets bought at an average of 63¢
last traded 67¢ on 2026-08-03
No
1 wallet bought at an average of 37¢
last traded 33¢ on 2026-08-03
how to read this
Whale money is genuinely split here. Yes took 68% of the buy volume and No took 32%, so large wallets are on both sides of this question. There is no whale consensus to follow.
Between those entries and the last print the market moved 4 cents toward the side whales bought. That is the distance between two observed prices, not a profit: we do not know which of these wallets are still holding.
biggest whale fills (7)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 0x7b02…4991 | BUY | Yes | $36K | 62¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0x7bc1…8db4 | BUY | No | $25K | 37¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0xeb6f…25f0 | SELL | Yes | $18K | 77¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0xa022…77f8 | BUY | Yes | $18K | 65¢ |
| 2026-07-29 | 0x8c10…d7b3 | SELL | No | $15K | 36¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x9ffe…8edd | SELL | Yes | $15K | 76¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x4478…02a4 | SELL | Yes | $12K | 77¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-03
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.