Who bet on "Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena" — Polymarket whale activity
3 whale wallets moved $97K through this market in the 30 days to 2026-07-28, across 5 trades of $10,000 or more. 100% of their buy volume went to Roberto Carballes Baena, at a volume-weighted entry of 90¢. The market last traded Roberto Carballes Baena at 99.9¢.
- $97K
- whale volume
- 3
- whale wallets
- 5
- fills ≥ $10K
- 65%
- top wallet share
where the whale money went
Roberto Carballes Baena
2 wallets bought at an average of 90¢
last traded 99.9¢ on 2026-07-28
how to read this
This is not a directional bet. 3 wallets put $97K into Roberto Carballes Baena at around 90¢ — an outcome the market already priced as all but decided. The trade on offer here is the last few cents of the dollar, not a call on the result, and reading it as smart-money conviction would be wrong.
It is also mostly one actor: the largest wallet is 65% of the buy flow ($50K), so this is a single desk parking money rather than a crowd doing the same trade.
The market has since converged — Roberto Carballes Baena last traded at 99.9¢ on 2026-07-28 — so this page is a record of how large wallets positioned while the question was still open.
biggest whale fills (5)
| date | wallet | side | outcome | size | price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 0xfe78…0319 | BUY | Roberto Carballes Baena | $27K | 91¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x5f65…2036 | SELL | Roberto Carballes Baena | $19K | 76¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x2005…75ea | BUY | Roberto Carballes Baena | $18K | 90¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x2005…75ea | BUY | Roberto Carballes Baena | $18K | 90¢ |
| 2026-07-28 | 0x2005…75ea | BUY | Roberto Carballes Baena | $14K | 90¢ |
Each wallet links to its transaction on Polygonscan — every number on this page is checkable against the chain.
markets with similar flow
This market is one of 300 markets we track whale flow on; the week's biggest moves across all of them are on the whale index.
Whether this kind of flow actually predicts outcomes is a separate question, and we tested it on hundreds of resolved markets — read the backtest. The short version: whale flow confirms, it does not forecast.
Not financial advice · on-chain data, may be delayed · snapshot of 2026-08-17 · below our data bar, excluded from search indexing
Free tier covers the whale endpoints used on this page.