Whale Move of the Week — August 3, 2026
The 5 biggest single whale positions opened on Polymarket this week total $1,103,378, the largest of them $264,805.
The moves below are on-chain records from our pm_raw_trades ledger — the same dataset behind the reversal-index backtest — for the seven days ending August 3, 2026. Wallet addresses are truncated for readability but resolve to accounts you can verify on-chain.
Move 1 — New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: $264,805 on Chicago White Sox
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox |
| Wallet | 0xc3acf587…b964 |
| Outcome | Chicago White Sox |
| Size | $264,805 |
| Avg entry price | 0.510 |
| Fills | 2 trades, 2026-07-30 |
The market was pricing Chicago White Sox at about 51% when this wallet bought in.
Move 2 — LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner: $225,999 on Hanwha Life Esports
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner |
| Wallet | 0x2c335066…0563 |
| Outcome | Hanwha Life Esports |
| Size | $225,999 |
| Avg entry price | 0.769 |
| Fills | 2 trades, 2026-07-30 |
The market was pricing Hanwha Life Esports at about 77% when this wallet bought in.
Move 3 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?: $222,774 on Yes
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? |
| Wallet | 0xc6587b11…b784 |
| Outcome | Yes |
| Size | $222,774 |
| Avg entry price | 0.737 |
| Fills | 2 trades, 2026-07-29 |
The market was pricing Yes at about 74% when this wallet bought in.
Move 4 — Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?: $195,348 on No
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? |
| Wallet | 0x0c689c8e…9e76 |
| Outcome | No |
| Size | $195,348 |
| Avg entry price | 0.725 |
| Fills | 1 trade, 2026-07-28 03:13:24 UTC |
The market was pricing No at about 73% when this wallet bought in.
Move 5 — UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims): $194,452 on Vlasto Cepo
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims) |
| Wallet | 0x1b20a007…3ab0 |
| Outcome | Vlasto Cepo |
| Size | $194,452 |
| Avg entry price | 0.730 |
| Fills | 1 trade, 2026-08-01 17:26:39 UTC |
The market was pricing Vlasto Cepo at about 73% when this wallet bought in.
The caveat
These are 5 positions, not a strategy. Every one of these wallets can be wrong, and a large position can be a hedge against exposure held somewhere else entirely. The point of the series is to build intuition for what large, one-sided, well-timed flow looks like. The backtest is where we test, on hundreds of resolved markets, whether that intuition actually pays.
Each position is shown as it was entered. Some of these markets may have settled since; this series reports the flow, not the result.
How these are sourced
Every edition starts from the raw whale-trade ledger: group this week's buys by wallet and outcome, keep positions above $50,000, drop entries priced above 0.97 or below 0.03 — those are settlement plays, not calls — and take the largest remaining position per wallet. You can run the same screen yourself from the actor's market_whales and whales actions — see the API.