Whale Move of the Week — July 27, 2026
$881,186 of whale money moved on Polymarket this week across 5 positions, the biggest worth $236,550.
The moves below are on-chain records from our pm_raw_trades ledger — the same dataset behind the reversal-index backtest — for the seven days ending July 27, 2026. Wallet addresses are truncated for readability but resolve to accounts you can verify on-chain.
Move 1 — Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?: $236,550 on Yes
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25? |
| Wallet | 0xc2e7800b…be51 |
| Outcome | Yes |
| Size | $236,550 |
| Avg entry price | 0.570 |
| Fills | 3 trades, 2026-07-25 |
The market was pricing Yes at about 57% when this wallet bought in.
Move 2 — Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?: $190,758 on Yes
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? |
| Wallet | 0x7b02b2ba…4991 |
| Outcome | Yes |
| Size | $190,758 |
| Avg entry price | 0.741 |
| Fills | 2 trades, 2026-07-22 → 2026-07-23 |
The market was pricing Yes at about 74% when this wallet bought in.
Move 3 — Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5: $155,886 on Under
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 |
| Wallet | 0x547f2917…2937 |
| Outcome | Under |
| Size | $155,886 |
| Avg entry price | 0.650 |
| Fills | 4 trades, 2026-07-24 |
The market was pricing Under at about 65% when this wallet bought in.
Move 4 — New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: $152,467 on Philadelphia Phillies
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies |
| Wallet | 0x69c5c6f6…1e01 |
| Outcome | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Size | $152,467 |
| Avg entry price | 0.665 |
| Fills | 2 trades, 2026-07-26 |
The market was pricing Philadelphia Phillies at about 67% when this wallet bought in.
Move 5 — Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty: $145,525 on New York Liberty
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Market | Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty |
| Wallet | 0x4bff30af…fc26 |
| Outcome | New York Liberty |
| Size | $145,525 |
| Avg entry price | 0.750 |
| Fills | 4 trades, 2026-07-22 |
The market was pricing New York Liberty at about 75% when this wallet bought in.
The caveat
These are 5 positions, not a strategy. Every one of these wallets can be wrong, and a large position can be a hedge against exposure held somewhere else entirely. The point of the series is to build intuition for what large, one-sided, well-timed flow looks like. The backtest is where we test, on hundreds of resolved markets, whether that intuition actually pays.
Each position is shown as it was entered. Some of these markets may have settled since; this series reports the flow, not the result.
How these are sourced
Every edition starts from the raw whale-trade ledger: group this week's buys by wallet and outcome, keep positions above $50,000, drop entries priced above 0.97 or below 0.03 — those are settlement plays, not calls — and take the largest remaining position per wallet. You can run the same screen yourself from the actor's market_whales and whales actions — see the API.